Emmy Predictions 2023: ‘Barry’ and ‘Succession’ Dominating Final Weeks of Eligibility; First Projections for Documentary Categories

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: April 20, 2023

Weekly Commentary: The close of the eligibility window is fast approaching.

HBO is dominating the headlines at the moment with the final seasons of the drama Succession and the comedy Barry. Their limited series slate is about to add excitement with the upcoming Love Death with Elizabeth Olsen and Jesse Plemons and White House Plumbers with Woody Harrelson and Justin Theroux.

News of category submissions is flooding the season such as The Problem with Jon Stewart having to compete in talk series, HBO submitting A Black Lady Sketch Show for 30 categories and Marlee Matlin being put up for directing an episode of the Fox anthology crime series Accused, alongside Michael Chiklis, also a lead actor hopeful.

The ranked charts for supporting actress (drama) and supporting actor (limited) have been released. Down below, you can see the alphabetical first guesses for outstanding animated program, directing (variety series), documentary or nonfiction series, documentary or nonfiction special and hosted nonfiction series or special.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

Drama Series

Image Credit: photo: Prashant Gupta / FX Netwo Andor (Disney+)

Better Call Saul (AMC)

The Crown (Netflix)

The Last of Us (HBO)

The Old Man (FX)

Succession (HBO) ***

The White Lotus (HBO)

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Emmy category page with rankings

Comedy Series

Image Credit: ABC Abbott Elementary (ABC) ***

Barry (HBO)

The Bear (FX)

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Poker Face (Peacock)

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings

Limited or Anthology Series

“Beef” (Netflix)

Black Bird (Apple TV+)

Dahmer Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)

Daisy Jones the Six (Prime Video)

Fleishman is in Trouble (FX)

Love Death (HBO) ***

Emmy category page with rankings

TV Movie

Image Credit: Battle Row Group Inc Dolly Partons Mountain Magic Christmas (NBC)

Fire Island (Hulu)

Prey (Hulu)

Reality (HBO)

Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (The Roku Channel) ***

Emmy category page with rankings

Lead Actor (Drama)

Image Credit: Des Willie / Lucasfilm Ltd. Jeff Bridges ***

The Old Man (FX)

Brian Cox

Succession (HBO)

Diego Luna

Andor (Disney+)

Bob Odenkirk

Better Call Saul (AMC)

Pedro Pascal

The Last of Us (HBO)

Jeremy Strong

Succession (HBO)

Emmy category page with rankings

Lead Actor (Comedy)

Image Credit: Hulu Bill Hader

Barry (HBO)

Steve Martin

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Martin Short

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Jason Segel

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Jason Sudeikis

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Jeremy Allen White ***

The Bear (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings

Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: COURTESY OF NETFLIX Taron Egerton

Black Bird (Apple TV+)

Evan Peters ***

Dahmer Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)

Jesse Plemons

Love Death (HBO)

Daniel Radcliffe

Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (The Roku Channel)

Michael Shannon

George Tammy (Showtime)

Steven Yeun

Beef (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings

Guest Actor (Drama)

Image Credit: Greg Lewis/AMC/Sony Pictures Television Murray Bartlett

The Last of Us (HBO)

Bryan Cranston

Better Call Saul (AMC)

James Cromwell

Succession (HBO)

Arian Moayed

Succession (HBO)

Nick Offerman ***

The Last of Us (HBO)

Andy Serkis

Andor (Disney+)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Guest Actor (Comedy)

Adrien Brody

Poker Face (Peacock)

Nathan Lane

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Steve Martin Martin Short

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Leslie Odom Jr.

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Pedro Pascal ***

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Oliver Platt

The Bear (FX)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Lead Actress (Drama)

Image Credit: HBO Sharon Horgan

Bad Sisters (Apple TV+)

Melanie Lynskey

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Helen Mirren

1923 (Paramount+)

Bella Ramsey

The Last of Us (HBO)

Sarah Snook ***

Succession (HBO)

Imelda Staunton

The Crown (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings

Lead Actress (Comedy)

Image Credit: Hulu Rachel Brosnahan

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Quinta Brunson ***

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Bridget Everett

Somebody Somewhere (HBO)

Elle Fanning

The Great (Hulu)

Natasha Lyonne

Poker Face (Peacock)

Jenna Ortega

Wednesday (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings

Lead Actress (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: HULU Jessica Chastain

George Tammy (Showtime)

Kathryn Hahn

Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)

Riley Keough

Daisy Jones the Six (Prime Video)

Elizabeth Olsen ***

Love Death (HBO)

Rachel Weisz

Dead Ringers (Prime Video)

Ali Wong

Beef (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings

Guest Actress (Drama)

Image Credit: Liane Hentscher/HBO Betsy Brandt

Better Call Saul (AMC)

Cherry Jones

Succession (HBO)

Melanie Lynskey

The Last of Us (HBO)

Ella Purnell

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Fiona Shaw

Andor (Disney+)

Harriet Walter ***

Succession (HBO)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Guest Actress (Comedy)

Image Credit: Peacock Quinta Brunson

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Taraji P. Henson ***

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Cherry Jones

Poker Face (Peacock)

Judith Light

Poker Face (Peacock)

Shirley MacLaine

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Sarah Niles

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Supporting Actor (Drama)

Image Credit: Netflix Kieran Culkin ***

Succession (HBO)

Giancarlo Esposito

Better Call Saul (AMC)

John Lithgow

The Old Man (FX)

Matthew Macfadyen

Succession (HBO)

Jonathan Pryce

The Crown (Netflix)

Alan Ruck

Succession (HBO)

Alexander Skarsgård

Succession (HBO)

Matt Smith

House of the Dragon (HBO)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Supporting Actor (Comedy)

Image Credit: HBO Anthony Carrigan

Barry (HBO)

Harrison Ford ***

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Brett Goldstein

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Brian Tyree Henry

Atlanta (FX)

Tony Shalhoub

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Tyler James Williams

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Henry Winkler

Barry (HBO)

Bowen Yang

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings

Supporting Actor (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Hulu Murray Bartlett

Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu)

Domhnall Gleeson

The Patient (Hulu)

Paul Walter Hauser ***

Black Bird (Apple TV+)

Richard Jenkins

Dahmer Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)

Ray Liotta

Black Bird (Apple TV+)

Young Mazino

Beef (Netflix)

Emmy category page with rankings

Supporting Actress (Drama)

Image Credit: HBO Carol Burnett

Better Call Saul (AMC)

Jennifer Coolidge ***

The White Lotus (HBO)

Elizabeth Debicki

The Crown (Netflix)

Meghann Fahy

The White Lotus (HBO)

Aubrey Plaza

The White Lotus (HBO)

Christina Ricci

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Rhea Seehorn

Better Call Saul (AMC)

J. Smith-Cameron

Succession (HBO)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Supporting Actress (Comedy)

Image Credit: Apple TV+ Alex Borstein

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Ayo Edebiri

The Bear (FX)

Sarah Goldberg

Barry (HBO)

Janelle James

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Sheryl Lee Ralph ***

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Hannah Waddingham

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Lisa Ann Walter

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Jessica Williams

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Supporting Actress (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: BBC/FX Networks/Pari Dukovic Olivia Colman

Great Expectations (Hulu)

Claire Danes

Fleishman is in Trouble (FX)

Cherry Jones

Five Days at Memorial (Apple TV+)

Niecy Nash-Betts ***

Dahmer Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)

Lily Rabe

Love Death (HBO)

Merritt Wever

Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Animated Program

Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Big Mouth (Netflix)

Bobs Burgers (Fox)

Entergalactic (Netflix)

The Simpsons (Fox)

South Park (Comedy Central)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Talk Series

Image Credit: Scott Kowalchyk/CBS via Getty Images Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)

Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)

The Problem With Jon Stewart (Apple TV+) ***

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Scripted Variety Series

Image Credit: hbo A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO) ***

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Directing (Drama)

Better Call Saul (AMC)

Peter Gould, Saul Gone

The Last of Us (HBO)

Peter Hoar, Long, Long Time

The Old Man (FX)

Jon Watts, I

Succession (HBO) ***

Mark Mylod, Connors Wedding

The White Lotus (HBO)

Mike White, Arrivederci

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Liz Garbus, Qui

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Karyn Kusama, TBA Episode 10

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Directing (Comedy)

Image Credit: Matt Dinerstein/FX Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Randall Einhorn, Development Day

Barry (HBO) ***

Bill Hader, TBA Episode 8

The Bear (FX)

Christopher Storer, System

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Amy Sherman-Palladino, TBA Episode 9

Poker Face (Peacock)

Rian Johnson, Dead Mans Hand

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

James Ponsoldt, Coin Flip

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Matt Lipsey, Sunflowers

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Directing (Limited/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Lacey Terrell/Prime Video Black Bird (Apple TV+)

Michaël R. Roskam, Pilot

Dahmer Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)

Paris Barclay, God of Forgiveness, God of Vengeance

Daisy Jones the Six (Prime Video)

Nzingha Stewart, Track 8: Looks Like We Made It

Fleishman is in Trouble (FX)

Valerie Faris Jonathan Dayton, Summon Your Witnesses

Love Death (HBO)

Lesli Linka Glatter, TBA Episode

Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (The Roku Channel) ***

Eric Appel

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Directing (Variety Series)

Image Credit: Lloyd Bishop/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)

Bridget Stokes, TBA Episode

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

Paul Pennolino, Psychedelic Assisted Therapy

Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)

Alexander J. Vietmeier, TBA Episode

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Jim Hoskinson, TBA Episode

Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Liz Patrick, Steve Martin and Martin Short/Brandi Carlile

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Writing (Drama)

Image Credit: Credit: Natalie Seery Bad Sisters (Apple TV+)

The Prick by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett Baer

Better Call Saul (AMC)

Saul Gone by Peter Gould

The Last of Us (HBO)

Long, Long Time by Craig Mazin

Succession (HBO) ***

Connors Wedding by Jesse Armstrong

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Qui by Karen Joseph Adcock, Ameni Rozsa

The White Lotus (HBO)

Arrivederci by Mike White

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Writing (Comedy)

Image Credit: FX Abbott Elementary (ABC) ***

Development Day by Quinta Brunson

The Bear (FX)

System by Christopher Storer

Poker Face (Peacock)

Dead Mans Hand by Rian Johnson

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

Coin Flip by Bill Lawrence, Jason Segel, Brett Goldstein

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

TBA Episode 34 by Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jason Sudeikis

What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Private School by Ayo Edebiri, Shana Gohd

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Writing (Limited/Anthology/TV Movie)

Image Credit: Everett Collection Black Bird (Apple TV+) ***

WhatsHerName by Dennis Lehane, Steve Harris

Daisy Jones the Six (Prime Video)

Track 1: Come and Get It by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber

Fleishman is in Trouble (FX))

Summon Your Witness by Taffy Brodesser-Akner

Love Death (HBO)

Episode #1.1 by David E. Kelley

White House Plumbers (HBO)

TBA Episode by Alex Gregory, Peter Huyck

Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (The Roku Channel)

Film Screenplay by Al Yankovic, Eric Appel

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Documentary or Nonfiction Series

Image Credit: Courtesy of Philippe Le Tellier/Paris Match via Getty Images 100 Foot Wave (HBO)

The 1619 Project (Netflix)

Harry Meghan (Netflix)

The Last Movie Stars (CNN) ***

The U.S. and the Holocaust (PBS)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Documentary or Nonfiction Special

Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute Call Me Miss Cleo (HBO)

Judy Blume Forever (Amazon Prime Video)

Katrina Babies (HBO)

Pamela: A Love Story (Netflix)

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple TV+) ***

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special

Image Credit: CNN Eva Longoria: Searching for Mexico (CNN)

My Next Guest with David Letterman and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Netflix)

Somebody Feed Phil (Netflix)

Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy (CNN) ***

Vice (Showtime)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

Game Show

Image Credit: Netflix Floor is Lava (Netflix)

Is It Cake? (Netflix)

Lets Make a Deal (CBS)

Jeopardy (ABC) ***

The Price is Right (CBS)

Emmy category page with rankings coming soon

TV Columns and Podcast Archives

Image Credit: Dan Doperalski for Variety Awards Circuit TV Columns ExclusivesHBO Submits ‘A Black Lady Sketch Show’ for 30 Emmy Categories, Seeking Overdue Acting Noms for Main Cast Members (EXCLUSIVE)‘Yellowstone’ Star Lainey Wilson Will Compete at Emmys With Original Song ‘Smell Like Smoke’ (EXCLUSIVE)‘The Problem With Jon Stewart’ Won’t Compete for Hosted Nonfiction Emmys, Must Submit as Talk Series (EXCLUSIVE)Michael Chiklis and Marlee Matlin Among Emmy Submissions for Fox’s Anthology Series ‘Accused’ (EXCLUSIVE)Riley Keough and Marcus Mumford Are Emmy Contenders With Three Original Song Submissions From ‘Daisy Jones the Six’ (EXCLUSIVE)Well Done! Netflix Submits Dark Comedy ‘Beef’ as Limited or Anthology Series for Emmys (EXCLUSIVE)How Supporting Players Could Be Vying for Leading Emmy Status in Rapid ‘Succession’ (EXCLUSIVE)Vote for Pedro: How Pedro Pascal Could Land Multiple Emmy Acting Noms and Make HistoryEmmy Acting Campaigns Revealed for ‘Yellowjackets’ Second Season With Surprising Change (EXCLUSIVE)Peacock’s ‘Poker Face’ Will Submit as a Comedy at the Emmy Awards (EXCLUSIVE)‘The White Lotus’ No Longer Eligible for Emmys’ Limited Series Category, Moving to Drama (EXCLUSIVE) Awards Circuit Podcast (TV Season) ArchivesTV episodes are set to premiere in April 2023. Emmy Awards Predictions Categories DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | VARIETY SKETCH, SERIES, SPECIALS |

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories GUEST ACTING, VOICE-OVER, SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.