Emmy Predictions: Writing (Series, TV Movie) – ‘Succession’ Goes for Fourth; ‘Abbott’ Brings Laughs; ‘Fire Island’ and ‘Swarm’ Stand Out

VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: May 11, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

The White Lotus Variety Weekly Commentary: Succession writer Jesse Armstrong is the first solo writer to win this category three times, and he could extend that record with the Connors Wedding episode (and whatever the finale brings). The challengers come from his HBO counterparts, The Last of Us and The White Lotus. AMC could also get traction for the final episode of Better Call Saul.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:Succession (HBO) Connors Wedding by Jesse ArmstrongThe Last of Us (HBO) Long, Long Time by Craig MazinBetter Call Saul (AMC) Saul Gone by Peter GouldThe White Lotus (HBO) Arrivederci by Mike WhiteBad Sisters (Apple TV+) The Prick by Sharon Horgan, Dave Finkel, Brett BaerQueen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story (Netflix) Crown Jewels by Shonda RhimesThe Crown (Netflix) Gunpowder by Peter Morgan Next in LineYellowjackets (Showtime) Qui by Karen Joseph Adcock, Ameni RozsaThe Last of Us (HBO) Look for the Light by Craig Mazin, Neil Druckmann Stranger Things (Netflix) Chapter Nine: The Piggyback by The Duffer Brothers Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesHouse of the Dragon (HBO) The Heirs of the Dragon by Ryan Condal Better Call Saul (AMC) Breaking Bad by Thomas SchnauzThe Old Man (FX) I by Jonathan E. Steinberg, Robert LevineAndor (Disney+) Rix Road by Tony GilroyThe Last of Us (HBO) Left Behind by Neil DruckmannThe Diplomat (Netflix) Lambs in the Dark by Debora Cahn1923 (Paramount+) 1923 by Taylor SheridanYellowstone (Paramount Network) Taylor Sheridan, A Knife and No CoinThe Boys (Prime Video) The Instant White-Hot Wild by Logan Ritchey, David ReedThe Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Prime Video) A Shadow of the Past by J.D. Payne, Patrick McKay 2023 Emmy Predictions:

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

Patrick McElhenney Weekly Commentary: Quinta Brunson won this category last year for the first season Abbott Elementary and she faces stiff competition once again with an onslaught of critically acclaimed shows like The Bear, Shrinking and Ted Lasso.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:Abbott Elementary (ABC) Development Day by Quinta BrunsonThe Bear (FX) System by Christopher StorerShrinking (Apple TV+) Coin Flip by Bill Lawrence, Jason Segel, Brett GoldsteinTed Lasso (Apple TV+) Sunflowers by Joe Kelly, Jason Sudeikis, Brendan HuntPoker Face (Peacock) Dead Mans Hand by Rian JohnsonWhat We Do in the Shadows (FX) Private School by Ayo Edebiri, Shana GohdThe Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video) Four Minutes by Amy Sherman-Palladino, Daniel Palladino Next in LineTed Lasso (Apple TV+) TBA Episode 12 by Brendan Hunt, Joe Kelly, Jason SudeikisAbbott Elementary (ABC) Franklin Institute by Brittani NicholsBarry (HBO) wow by Bill Hader Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesOnly Murders in the Building (Hulu) Persons of Interest by John Hoffman, Noah LevineTed Lasso (Apple TV+) Big Week by Brett GoldsteinWednesday (Netflix) Wednesdays Child is Full of Woe by Alfred Gough, Miles MillarThe Great (Hulu) Once Upon a Time by Tony McNamaraSomebody Somewhere (HBO) NNP by Hannah Bos, Paul Thureen, Bridget EverettMo (Netflix) Hamoodi by Mohammed Amer, Ramy YoussefAmerican Born Chinese (Disney+) TBA Episode by Kelvin Yu, Charles YuReservation Dogs (FX) The Curse by Sterlin Harjo, Dallas Goldtooth, Ryan RedCornCall Me Kat (Fox) Call Me Uncle Dad by Britt Anchor, Jim Reynolds, Maria Ferrari, Chelsea MyersThe Rehearsal (HBO) Orange Juice, No Pulp by Nathan Fielder 2023 Emmy Predictions:

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series or TV Movie

Jesse Eisenberg and Lizzy Caplan in Fleishman Is in Trouble. Warrick Page/Prime Video Weekly Commentary: With the combination of limited series and television movies, this race is a bit more interesting with Weird and Fire Island making plays for their comedic elements, and poignant shows like Black Bird and Fleishman is in Trouble looking strong for recognition.

Swarm creator Janine Nabers could also make history as the first Black woman to be recognized in this category for a show she created and produced.

Read:VarietysAwards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:Black Bird (Apple TV+) WhatsHerName by Dennis Lehane, Steve HarrisFleishman is in Trouble (FX) Summon Your Witness by Taffy Brodesser-AknerDaisy Jones the Six (Prime Video) Track 1: Come and Get It by Scott Neustadter, Michael H. WeberWeird: The Al Yankovic Story (The Roku Channel) Film screenplay by Al Yankovic, Eric AppelLove Death (HBO) Series by David E. Kelley Next in LineBeef (Netflix) The Birds Dont Sing, They Screech in Pain by Lee Sung JinFire Island (Hulu) Film screenplay by Joel Kim BoosterDahmer Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix) Silenced by David McMillan, Janet MockSwarm (Prime Video) Stung by Janine Nabers, Donald GloverA Small Light (National Geographic) Pilot by Joan Rater, Tony Phelan Other Top-Tier PossibilitiesThe Patient (Hulu) Series by Joel Fields, Joe WeisbergCabinet of Curiosities (Netflix) The Autopsy by David S. GoyerMike (Hulu) Thief by Steven RogersIrma Vep (HBO) Series by Olivier AssayasDead Ringers (Prime Video) One by Alice BirchTiny Beautiful Things (Hulu) Pilot by Liz TigelaarWhite House Plumbers (HBO) The Beverly Hills Burglary by Alex Gregory, Peter HuyckThis is Going to Hurt (AMC) Series by Adam KayMrs. Davis (Peacock) Mother of Mercy: The Call of the Horse by Tara Hernandez Damon LindelofObi-Wan Kenobi (Disney+) Part VI by Joby Harold, Hossein Amini, Andrew Stanton Emmy Awards Predictions Categories DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) |

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.

About the Primetime Emmy Awards The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.